Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 890 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 890 · PHX → STL

departs 3:47 PM MT · arrives 9:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.08 in

STL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 890 · PHX → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?