Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 890 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 890 · PHX → STL

departs 3:52 PM MT · arrives 8:02 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.46 in

STL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 890 · PHX → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?