Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1140
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
DL 1140 · MCO → LAX
departs 5:19 PM ET · arrives 7:24 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 14%
Wed 11/4 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at MCO that day
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.