Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1149
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
DL 1149 · MCO → DTW
departs 6:13 PM ET · arrives 8:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 42%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 16%
Wed 11/4 18%
Thu 11/5 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at MCO that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.