Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1230 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

DL 1230 · DTW → MEM

departs 5:48 PM ET · arrives 6:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Arrivals into MEM at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1230 · DTW → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?