Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1230 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

DL 1230 · DTW → MEM

departs 8:05 PM ET · arrives 9:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MEM that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MEM (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.61 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1230 · DTW → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?