Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1251
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
DL 1251 · ATL → TUS
departs 8:57 PM ET · arrives 9:46 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 20%
Wed 11/4 20%
Thu 11/5 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at ATL that day
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.