Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1251
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1251 · ATL → TUS
departs 9:05 PM ET · arrives 10:49 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 20%
Wed 11/4 20%
Thu 11/5 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at TUS that day
↑
9pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.72 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.