Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1316 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

DL 1316 · DTW → JFK

departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 9:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1316 · DTW → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?