Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1496
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Today
DL 1496 · SLC → PHX
departs 9:59 PM MT · arrives 10:46 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 60%
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 17%
Wed 11/4 15%
Thu 11/5 23%
Fri 11/6 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.