Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
DL 1636 · JFK → TPA
departs 8:05 PM ET · arrives 11:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 16%
Wed 11/4 16%
Thu 11/5 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.