Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1636 · JFK → TPA
departs 7:55 PM ET · arrives 11:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 16%
Wed 11/4 16%
Thu 11/5 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from JFK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,767 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.62 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.