Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1824
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Today
DL 1824 · MIA → DTW
departs 6:32 PM ET · arrives 9:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at MIA that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.