Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
DL 2578 · DTW → AUS
departs 8:09 PM ET · arrives 10:07 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 20%
Wed 11/4 29%
Thu 11/5 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.