Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
DL 2615 · ATL → FSD
departs 6:16 PM ET · arrives 7:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 12%
Wed 11/4 14%
Thu 11/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at FSD that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FSD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.