Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 2615 · ATL → FSD
departs 6:16 PM ET · arrives 7:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 12%
Wed 11/4 14%
Thu 11/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
FSD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FSD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.