DL 2986 · LAX → SFO

departs 9:53 PM PT · arrives 11:17 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±6 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DL's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2986 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?