Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2986 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

DL 2986 · LAX → SFO

departs 9:16 PM PT · arrives 10:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±12 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ 0.3 in of rain forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.32 in

SFO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2986 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?