DL 386 · HNL → DTW

departs 4:18 PM HT · arrives 5:55 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ DL's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 386 · HNL → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?