Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 386 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

DL 386 · HNL → DTW

departs 3:21 PM HT · arrives 5:13 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at HNL that day

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 386 · HNL → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?