DL 8928 · MSP → SFO

took off 12:11 PM CT · expected to land 1:48 PM PT (scheduled 11:55 AM CT → 2:05 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.39 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 8928 · MSP → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?