Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3897
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
MQ 3897 · ILM → MIA
departs 7:01 PM ET · arrives 8:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at MIA that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.