Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4069
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
MQ 4069 · JAX → MIA
departs 5:02 PM ET · arrives 6:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±10 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at JAX that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.60 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.