Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4222
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
MQ 4222 · MIA → ILM
departs 7:47 PM ET · arrives 9:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at ILM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ILM?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at MIA that day
↑
7pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
ILM (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.