Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3933
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 3933 · MSP → ATW
departs 8:14 PM CT · arrives 9:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Fri 10/30 10%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 14%
Tue 11/3 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ATW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATW?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
ATW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
ATW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.