Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5398
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 5398 · LAX → MRY
departs 6:49 PM PT · arrives 8:12 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MRY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MRY?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MRY
↓
This flight has been late 11% of the time recently
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.10 in
MRY (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.