Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1326 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1326 · AUS → IAH

departs 5:33 PM CT · arrives 6:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±3 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at AUS that day

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.12 in

IAH (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1326 · AUS → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?