Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1551 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1551 · EWR → GUA

departs 6:41 PM ET · arrives 9:23 PM CST

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at GUA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GUA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GUA

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GUA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1551 · EWR → GUA

Odds over time

How late will it get to GUA?