Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1609 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1609 · DFW → IAH

departs 5:30 PM CT · arrives 6:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±7 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip0.11 in

IAH (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1609 · DFW → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?