Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1816 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1816 · DEN → YEG

departs 7:13 PM MT · arrives 10:01 PM MDT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at YEG more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YEG?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YEG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1816 · DEN → YEG

Odds over time

How late will it get to YEG?