UA 1936 · SFO → MSP

took off 12:05 AM PT · expected to land 5:05 AM CT (scheduled 12:14 AM PT → 5:53 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSP?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ 12am departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

MSP (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1936 · SFO → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?