Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2005 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2005 · ORD → MSP

departs 7:57 PM CT · arrives 9:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.30 in

MSP (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2005 · ORD → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?