UA 2380 · MSP → SFO

took off 7:05 AM CT · expected to land 8:48 AM PT (scheduled 7:01 AM CT → 9:36 AM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MSP that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,267 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.39 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2380 · MSP → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?