Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 445 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

UA 445 · DEN → MIA

departs 3:59 PM MT · arrives 10:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±8 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.60 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 445 · DEN → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?