Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 1586 · DEN → ELP
departs 5:14 PM MT · arrives 7:12 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 48%
Mon 11/2 35%
Tue 11/3 41%
Wed 11/4 32%
Thu 11/5 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into ELP at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at DEN that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.