Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 1586 · DEN → ELP
departs 9:28 PM MT · arrives 11:25 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sat 10/31 33%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 35%
Tue 11/3 41%
Wed 11/4 32%
Thu 11/5 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±15 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed – in 24h
–
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.