Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Today
WN 164 · AUS → ABQ
departs 6:05 PM CT · arrives 7:04 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 11/2 29%
Thu 11/5 33%
Fri 11/6 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±5 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at ABQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABQ?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at AUS that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.02 in
ABQ (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.