Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 164 · AUS → ABQ
departs 6:05 PM CT · arrives 7:00 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 33%
Fri 11/6 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at ABQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABQ?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at AUS that day
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
ABQ (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.