Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1769
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 1769 · SEA → SMF
departs 6:53 PM PT · arrives 8:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 32%
Thu 11/5 41%
Fri 11/6 50%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±9 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from SEA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,429 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.