Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1769
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 1769 · SEA → SMF
departs 7:59 PM PT · arrives 9:53 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 32%
Thu 11/5 41%
Fri 11/6 50%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from SEA are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.