Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1790
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Today
WN 1790 · DEN → SMF
departs 5:06 PM MT · arrives 6:41 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 47%
Mon 11/2 58%
Thu 11/5 44%
Fri 11/6 49%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±7 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DEN that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.