Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1790
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 1790 · DEN → SMF
departs 6:20 PM MT · arrives 7:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 58%
Thu 11/5 44%
Fri 11/6 49%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±17 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.