Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1901
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 1901 · STL → MIA
departs 4:56 PM CT · arrives 8:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.