Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 2004 · ATL → TPA
departs 6:13 PM ET · arrives 7:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at ATL that day
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.