Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2004 · ATL → TPA
departs 5:38 PM ET · arrives 7:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31 34%
Sun 11/1
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,767 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.62 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.