Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2111
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 2111 · HOU → PHX
departs 5:22 PM CT · arrives 6:09 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Fri 10/30 46%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 38%
Wed 11/4 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.04 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.