Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2134
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 2134 · HOU → TPA
departs 5:47 PM CT · arrives 9:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/30 27%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 42%
Wed 11/4 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.04 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.