Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2226
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Today
WN 2226 · KOA → HNL
departs 7:01 PM HT · arrives 8:07 PM HT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 15%
Tue 11/3 14%
Wed 11/4 15%
Thu 11/5 22%
Fri 11/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave KOA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into HNL at that hour are often late
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↓
This flight has been late 5% of the time recently
↓
KOA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
KOA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,286 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.