Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2430
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 2430 · LAS → SMF
departs 4:57 PM PT · arrives 6:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 96%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 64%
Mon 11/2 36%
Thu 11/5 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.