Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2430
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2430 · LAS → OAK
departs 1:57 PM PT · arrives 3:34 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 95%
Sat 10/31 37%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 36%
Thu 11/5 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.13 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.